Kenny Shirley

I’m a research scientist in the demand forecasting group at Amazon in New York City. My research interests (past and present) include hierarchical Bayesian modeling, MCMC methods, data and model visualization, text mining, and other topics related to applied statistics.

This is my personal site, which is a mix of statistics research, side projects (mostly sports-related) and other stuff.



(2016) Dean Foster, Howard Karloff and Kenneth E. Shirley, "How well does the standard body mass index or variations with a different exponent predict human lifespan?", Obesity, Vol. 24, Issue 2, pp. 469-475.
[pdf] [supplementary material] [GitHub] [Online Calculator]

(2015). Kenneth E. Shirley and Andrew Gelman. "Hierarchical models for estimating state and demographic trends in US death penalty public opinion ", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), Volume 178, Number 1, pp. 1 - 28.

(2010). Kenneth E. Shirley, Dylan S. Small, Kevin G. Lynch, Stephen A. Maisto, and David W. Oslin. "Hidden Markov models for alcoholism treatment trial data", Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 4, Number 1, pp. 366-395.

(2009). Shane T. Jensen, Kenneth E. Shirley, and Abraham G. Wyner. "Bayesball: A Bayesian hierarchical model for evaluating fielding in major league baseball", Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 3, Number 2, pp. 491-520.
[pdf] [website]


(2016). Cheryl Flynn, Kenneth E. Shirley, and Wei Wang, "Deconstructing Domain Names to Reveal Latent Topics", IEEE International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA), Montreal, Canada, October 17, 2016. (*Honorable Mention Best Paper Award)
[pdf] [slides]

(2015). Wei Wang and Kenneth E. Shirley. "Breaking Bad: Detecting malicious domains using word segmentation", IEEE 2015 workshop on Web 2.0 Security and Privacy (W2SP), San Jose, CA, May 21, 2015.

(2014). Carson Sievert and Kenneth E. Shirley. "LDAvis: A method for visualizing and interpreting topics", ACL 2014 Workshop on Interactive Language Learning, Visualization, and Interfaces, Baltimore, MD, June 27, 2014.
[pdf] [GitHub]

(2013). Amy Reibman, Kenneth E. Shirley, and Chao Tian. "A Probabilistic Pairwise-Preference Predictor For Image Quality", Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Image Processing, Melbourne, Australia, Sept. 15 - 18, 2013. pp. 413 - 417.

(2013). Howard Karloff and Kenneth E. Shirley. "Maximum Entropy Summary Trees", Computer Graphics Forum (Proc. EuroVis), Volume 32, Issue 3, Part 1, pp. 71-80. (*Honorable Mention Best Paper Award)
[pdf] [website]


(2012). Daniel Osgood and Kenneth E. Shirley, "The Value of Information in Index Insurance for Farmers in Africa". In Ramanan Laxminarayan and Molly K. Macauley (eds.), "The Value of Information: Methodological Frontiers and New Applications in Environment and Health", pp. 1-18, Springer, New York, USA.

(2011). Andrew Gelman and Kenneth E. Shirley, "Inference and Monitoring Convergence". In Steve Brooks, Andrew Gelman, Galin L. Jones, and Xiao-Li Meng (eds.), "Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo", pp. 163-174, Chapman & Hall/CRC, New York, USA.
[pdf] [website]